On the same homes, ADR rose 12.3% across two years while nights sold fell 8.8%, leaving rent up just 2.4% and 2025 finishing below 2024 outright. Something did need adjusting. The adjustment then ran to 28% below last year on peak 2027 bookings, and it landed on the guests who had already paid the higher rate without hesitation.
Pacer connected directly to Seabrook's Track account on August 3. This audit is built from that live connection and from Pacer's own copy of the same reservation record. Nothing in Seabrook's pricing was changed to produce it.
August 3. Direct API access to units, reservations and nightly rates.
What the completed year shows, what the 2027 book is doing, and why.
Protect the Fourth of July week and remaining peak 2027 inventory.
Group homes on bedrooms and sleeping capacity together, not bedrooms alone.
The 2027 book read like for like, every week, through the season.
This audit reads Seabrook's own booking record, pulled directly from Track rather than from any pricing tool's reporting layer. It covers every reservation from August 2023 through the forward book into September 2027. The finding that matters is not in the completed year. It is in the book being written right now for 2027.
Two sources were used and reconciled against each other: Seabrook's Track PMS by direct API pull, and Pacer's warehouse copy of the same reservation record. Where this audit states a rate, it is the rent actually contracted on a booking, not a calendar list price.
The diagnosis has two halves. Seabrook spent two years converting volume into rate and ended roughly where it started on revenue, which is a real problem and explains why the pricing model was retuned. The retune then overshot. Matched on home, stay month and booking lead time, July 2027 is contracting at $1,198 against $1,677 for July 2026, and the guests affected are the ones who had already paid the higher rate without hesitation.
Every year cut to the same January through July window, on the same 286 homes present in all three years. Roster changes cannot move this comparison.
| January through July | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2026 vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADR | $382.42 | $400.80 | $429.49 | +12.3% |
| Nights sold | 23,558 | 22,227 | 21,489 | -8.8% |
| Rent | $9,008,979 | $8,908,633 | $9,229,336 | +2.4% |
Rate rose every year and nights fell every year, in all three bedroom segments without exception. Two years of 12.3% rate growth produced 2.4% more rent, and 2025 finished below 2024 outright. That is the honest read of the completed period: the pricing was not failing on rate, it was funding rate with volume and ending near flat. This is the problem the model was retuned to solve, which is why what happened next matters so much.
Fixed cohort: 286 homes with bookings in all three years, stay dates January 1 through July 31. Full calendar 2024 against 2025 on a 315 home cohort shows the same shape: $16.92M to $16.67M on 5.6% fewer nights. Source: Pacer warehouse, cancellations excluded.
Same home, same stay month, and both bookings made 180 or more days before arrival. Unit mix, seasonality and lead time are all held constant, so what is left is rate.
| Stay Month | Homes | ADR, 2026 to 2027 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| July | 14 | $1,677.45 → $1,198.45 | -28.6% |
| August | 4 | $1,850.63 → $1,331.03 | -28.1% |
| September | 1 | $792.03 → $602.10 | -24.0% |
| June | 11 | $865.85 → $785.80 | -9.2% |
| May | 6 | $1,232.51 → $1,245.46 | +1.1% |
2027 is between 0.5% and 2.6% booked against 2026's final reservation counts. July is 1.7% written. The pattern above is set by the earliest and highest paying guests, and the rest of the season is still open.
Seabrook's homes are grouped for comparison by bedroom bucket plus a single hand-entered score. There is no term for how many guests a home sleeps, which is the variable that most determines what a beach house can charge.
| Bedrooms | Units | Sleeps Fewest | Sleeps Median | Sleeps Most |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 BR | 124 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 BR | 68 | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 BR | 25 | 10 | 14 | 18 |
| 6 BR | 5 | 14 | 15 | 22 |
Sleeps 18. The median four bedroom at Seabrook sleeps 10. It is larger than 67 of the 68 homes in its own bedroom class and is priced against homes half its capacity.
These two are each other's only comparable. A group of two has no outside reference, so when both move the same direction nothing corrects it. Both were rescored from 3 to 15 in the same pass.
Including the two largest in the book: a six bedroom sleeping 20 and a nine bedroom sleeping 18. Nothing defines what those are measured against.
The configuration export contains five different versions of the quality score, each with a complete set of database update statements. Of the 122 homes present in all five, every single one carries a different value depending on which version is read.
A score that ranges from 3 to 20 for the same home across versions is not measuring quality. It is not tracking occupancy and it only loosely tracks revenue. Because that number selects the comp group, and the comp group sets the price, an unstable score produces an unstable rate for reasons no one can trace after the fact. Eagles Nest and Stargazer both range from 3 to 15 across the five versions.
Trailing twelve months by stay date. Reservation share and revenue share are shown separately so channels that over-index on value are visible.
| Channel | Reservations | Res Share | Revenue | Revenue Share | ADR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct | 10,843 | 82.0% | $15,068,004 | 83.9% | $419.72 |
| Airbnb | 1,760 | 13.3% | $2,049,288 | 11.4% | $395.54 |
| Vrbo | 526 | 4.0% | $754,767 | 4.2% | $460.50 |
| Booking.com | 89 | 0.7% | $92,120 | 0.5% | $357.05 |
An 83.9% direct revenue share is exceptional and it changes how pricing should be reasoned about. Seabrook is not a price taker inside an OTA marketplace, it is the demand engine for its own town. Rate logic that leans on market comparables is answering a question Seabrook mostly does not face. Vrbo is worth noting separately: it carries the highest ADR in the book at $460.50 on only 4% of reservations.
Fee-to-rent by stay month, trailing twelve months, with total revenue per occupied night as the closing measure of what a guest actually pays.
| Month | Rent | Fees | Fee to Rent | Revenue per Occupied Night |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | $378,520 | $215,358 | 56.9% | $399.44 |
| February 2026 | $709,958 | $338,790 | 47.7% | $449.91 |
| April 2026 | $1,483,234 | $601,977 | 40.6% | $504.43 |
| June 2026 | $2,043,597 | $707,880 | 34.6% | $618.28 |
| July 2026 | $3,892,213 | $1,212,878 | 31.2% | $705.22 |
Fee load moves inversely with season, from 31% in peak July to 57% in January. That shape is expected, because fixed fees sit on top of a smaller off-season rent. The level is the issue. A guest booking a January stay is paying more than half again the rent in fees, which suppresses conversion in exactly the months that need volume. The fix is to convert fixed fees to percentage where the fee scales with the stay, and to flow fee structure seasonally rather than holding it flat all year.
Same-store revenue decline against the prior twelve months, filtered to homes where rate rather than availability is the driver. Homes whose nights collapsed while their rate rose were excluded, because those are inventory losses and not pricing failures.
| Home | Nights Prior | Nights TTM | ADR Prior | ADR TTM | Revenue Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oceanaire | 75 | 22 | $1,745.71 | $1,416.20 | -$99,772 |
| Sunset Retreat | 153 | 107 | $1,331.14 | $1,239.44 | -$71,044 |
| Tidewater Cottage | 165 | 75 | $323.50 | $306.92 | -$30,358 |
| Beach Therapy | 193 | 101 | $267.54 | $231.14 | -$28,291 |
| Ciao Bella Beach | 227 | 178 | $469.35 | $452.22 | -$26,047 |
| Togadera | 137 | 128 | $1,521.11 | $1,436.74 | -$24,489 |
These six lost both nights and rate at the same time, which separates them from the rest of the decline list. Oceanaire is the sharpest case: it held a $1,745 rate on 75 nights last year and now sits at $1,416 on 22. Each of these needs a rate and minimum stay review before the 2027 season prices, not after.
Seabrook's most valuable guests book close to a year ahead and pay an $801 average nightly rate, more than three times the last minute buyer. That cohort is writing the 2027 book right now, at 28% below what the same homes earned last July. The single highest value move is to put floors on peak 2027 dates before the rest of that season contracts, because a booked night cannot be repriced and roughly 98% of 2027 is still open.
Pacer Revenue Management · jon@pacerrev.com · pacerrev.com